8 Aug · 21:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
FK
🇨🇿Filip Karel
ELO 1688
FormWWWLW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Karel
MM
🇨🇿Martin Mastera
ELO 1571
FormLWLWL
59%
41%
🌟Karel goes over total as favourite 67% (12)
Fair odds · Karel
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~75 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
19%
3-0
18%
1-3
15%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+117
H2H9-8
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+117)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (9-8)