8 Aug · 20:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
DL
🇨🇿Dominik Lengal
ELO 1664
FormWLWWL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Lengal
MM
🇨🇿Martin Mastera
ELO 1571
FormLWLWL
58%
42%
🌟Mastera goes over total as underdog 65% (17)
Fair odds · Lengal
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 72% · 1.38· vig 6%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~75 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+93
H2H26-8
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+93)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (26-8)