8 Aug · 21:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MS
🇨🇿Martin Stusek
ELO 1685
FormWLWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Kadavy
OK
🇨🇿Ondrej Kadavy
ELO 1701
FormWLLLL
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Stusek🌟Stusek covers set handicap as underdog 67% (99)
Fair odds · Kadavy
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 42% · 2.36· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+16
H2H9-19
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.