9 Aug · 09:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MS
🇨🇿Martin Sobota
ELO 1475
FormWWWLW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Sindler
JS
🇨🇿Jaroslav Sindler
ELO 1550
FormWLWWL
44%
56%
🔥 Underdog lean · Sobota🌟Sindler rarely covers set handicap as favourite 34% (58)
Fair odds · Sindler
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~79 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-1
17%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+75
H2H12-8
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+75)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (12-8)