9 Aug · 07:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PJ
🇨🇿Patrik Jokiel
ELO 1446
FormLLWWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Sobota
MS
🇨🇿Martin Sobota
ELO 1475
FormWWWLW
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Jokiel🌟Sobota goes over total as favourite 71% (24)
Fair odds · Sobota
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
16%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+29
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.