9 Aug · 13:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AL
🇨🇿Ales Langer
ELO 1485
FormWLWWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Sulc
MS
🇨🇿Martin Sulc
ELO 1519
FormLLLWW
47%
53%
Fair odds · Sulc
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+34
H2H35-26
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.