9 Aug · 09:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JM
🇨🇿Jan Muska
ELO 1550
FormWLLWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Joksch
JJ
🇨🇿Jakub Joksch
ELO 1590
FormWWWWL
47%
53%
🌟Joksch stays under total as favourite 65% (17)
Fair odds · Joksch
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+40
H2H1-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.