9 Aug · 10:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
TB
🇨🇿Tomas Bartik
ELO 1673
FormLLWWW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Bartik
JJ
🇨🇿Jakub Joksch
ELO 1590
FormWWWWL
57%
43%
Fair odds · Bartik
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 72% · 1.38· vig 6%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~77 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+83
H2H2-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+83)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (2-1)