9 Aug · 08:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PJ
🇨🇿Patrik Jokiel
ELO 1446
FormLLWWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Jokiel
TO
🇨🇿Tomas Ogrocki
ELO 1399
FormWLLLL
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Ogrocki🌟Ogrocki stays under total as underdog 67% (45)
Fair odds · Jokiel
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 42% · 2.36· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+47
H2H10-17
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.