9 Aug · 15:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MS
🇨🇿Martin Sulc
ELO 1519
FormLLLWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Sulc
OF
🇨🇿Ondrej Fiklik
ELO 1493
FormLWWLL
52%
48%
Fair odds · Sulc
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+26
H2H15-18
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.