9 Aug · 20:40 MESZLow · Coin Flip
LJ
🇨🇿Lukas Krupnik Jr
ELO 1500
FormWLWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Jr
JO
🇨🇿Jan Oleksik
ELO 1483
FormLWLLW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Jr
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+17
H2H5-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.