9 Aug · 17:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MF
🇨🇿Milan Flesar
ELO 1487
FormLLLWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Lovl
JL
🇨🇿Jan Lovl
ELO 1541
FormLWLLL
46%
54%
🌟Flesar stays under total as underdog 67% (18)
Fair odds · Lovl
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 71% · 1.41· vig 6%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+54
H2H3-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.