9 Aug · 17:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
ZD
🇨🇿Zdenek Dusek
ELO 1393
FormLLLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Rein
TR
🇨🇿Tomas Rein
ELO 1431
FormWWLLW
47%
53%
🌟Dusek goes over total as underdog 66% (80)
Fair odds · Rein
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 71% · 1.41· vig 6%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+38
H2H22-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.