9 Aug · 17:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JS
🇨🇿Jiri Skalicky
ELO 1594
FormWWWLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Skalicky
RB
🇨🇿Radek Benes
ELO 1554
FormWWWWL
53%
47%
🌟Benes covers set handicap as underdog 62% (56)
Fair odds · Skalicky
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 42% · 2.36· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~79 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+40
H2H3-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.