9 Aug · 21:40 MESZLow · Coin Flip
LJ
🇨🇿Lukas Krupnik Jr
ELO 1500
FormWLWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Jnr
JJ
🇨🇿Jaroslav Neuwirth Jnr
ELO 1515
FormWWWLL
49%
51%
🌟Jr goes over total as underdog 70% (57)
Fair odds · Jnr
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+15
H2H11-17
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.