9 Aug · 17:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MM
🇨🇿Michal Macurak
ELO 1602
FormLWLWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Macurak
RB
🇨🇿Radek Benes
ELO 1554
FormWWWWL
54%
46%
🌟Benes covers set handicap as underdog 62% (56)
Fair odds · Macurak
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+48
H2H8-14
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.