9 Aug · 21:50 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MC
🇨🇿Martin Cerny
ELO 1626
FormWLLLW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Cerny
DH
🇨🇿Daniel Hyza
ELO 1537
FormWLLLW
57%
43%
Fair odds · Cerny
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 65% · 1.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~76 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+89
H2H16-14
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+89)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (16-14)