10 Aug · 10:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
TF
🇨🇿Tomas Fojtik
ELO 1526
FormWLLLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Pawlik
DP
🇨🇿Dominik Pawlik
ELO 1572
FormLLLLL
46%
54%
🌟Fojtik covers set handicap as underdog 70% (47)
Fair odds · Pawlik
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+46
H2H2-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.