10 Aug · 12:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
ML
🇨🇿Martin Lorenc
ELO 1454
FormWWWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Lorenc
IJ
🇨🇿Ivan Jemelka
ELO 1439
FormLLLLL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Lorenc
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+15
H2H1-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.