10 Aug · 14:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MP
🇨🇿Michal Prochazka
ELO 1629
FormLLWWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Prochazka
MB
🇨🇿Michal Brozek
ELO 1591
FormLWWLW
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Brozek
Fair odds · Prochazka
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~73 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+38
H2H12-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.