10 Aug · 09:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DJ
🇨🇿Dalibor Velky Jr
ELO 1531
FormLLLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Jr
RS
🇨🇿Radek Sedlacek
ELO 1517
FormWWWLW
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Sedlacek🌟Sedlacek covers set handicap as underdog 80% (20)
Fair odds · Jr
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 39% · 2.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+14
H2H12-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.