10 Aug · 22:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MN
🇨🇿Michal Nemec
ELO 1411
FormLLLWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Nemec
JR
🇨🇿Jakub Rolik
ELO 1359
FormLLLWL
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Rolik🌟Nemec rarely covers set handicap as favourite 36% (87)
Fair odds · Nemec
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+52
H2H90-78
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.