10 Aug · 18:50 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AJ
🇨🇿Ales Brandtl Jr
ELO 1494
FormWWWLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Koutnik
VK
🇨🇿Vojtech Koutnik
ELO 1539
FormLLWWW
46%
54%
🔥 Underdog lean · Jr🌟Koutnik rarely covers set handicap as favourite 35% (34)
Fair odds · Koutnik
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~71 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+45
H2H7-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.