10 Aug · 21:15 MESZMedium · Model Lean
IH
🇨🇿Ivan Heuman
ELO 1528
FormLLLLW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Krupnik
JK
🇨🇿Jan Krupnik
ELO 1588
FormLLWWW
45%
55%
🔥 Underdog lean · Heuman🌟Heuman covers set handicap as underdog 80% (40)
Fair odds · Krupnik
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~75 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+60
H2H11-10
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+60)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (11-10)