10 Aug · 18:15 MESZMedium · Model Lean
OK
🇨🇿Ondrej Kus
ELO 1484
FormWWWLL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Kus
FT
🇨🇿Filip Theodor
ELO 1384
FormWLLLL
58%
42%
🔥 Underdog lean · Theodor🌟Theodor goes over total as underdog 72% (18)
Fair odds · Kus
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~76 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+100
H2H4-4
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+100)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)