10 Aug · 18:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
OP
🇨🇿Ondrej Polak
ELO 1601
FormWLLWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Polak
JM
🇨🇿Jan Muska
ELO 1563
FormLWWWL
53%
47%
🌟Muska covers set handicap as underdog 75% (16)
Fair odds · Polak
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+38
H2H1-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.