10 Aug · 22:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JS
🇨🇿Jachym Sebl
ELO 1459
FormLWLWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Cousin
JC
🇨🇿Jean-Baptiste Cousin
ELO 1481
FormWWWWW
48%
52%
Fair odds · Cousin
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+22
H2H7-11
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.