10 Aug · 18:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
LB
🇨🇿Lukasz Buklat
ELO 1555
FormLWLWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Arkadiusz
WA
🇨🇿Wiekiera Arkadiusz
ELO 1559
FormWWLWL
50%
50%
Fair odds · Arkadiusz
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 46% · 2.19· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+4
H2H45-41
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.