11 Aug · 09:15 MESZLow · Coin Flip
LS
🇨🇿Lukas Krupnik Snr
ELO 1443
FormWLWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Sturma
PS
🇨🇿Patrik Sturma
ELO 1461
FormLLWWL
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Snr🌟Snr covers set handicap as underdog 88% (16)
Fair odds · Sturma
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 40% · 2.52· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+18
H2H11-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.