11 Aug · 08:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PS
🇨🇿Patrik Sturma
ELO 1461
FormLLWWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Sturma
DS
🇨🇿Dominik Stefek
ELO 1419
FormWLLLW
53%
47%
🌟Sturma rarely covers set handicap as favourite 30% (56)
Fair odds · Sturma
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+42
H2H2-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.