11 Aug · 15:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
VJ
🇨🇿Vaclav Hejda Jr
ELO 1558
FormWWLWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Jr
MS
🇨🇿Martin Sulc
ELO 1527
FormWLWWL
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Sulc🌟Jr rarely covers set handicap as favourite 37% (62)
Fair odds · Jr
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 53% · 1.88· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+31
H2H17-17
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.