11 Aug · 14:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
RV
🇨🇿Radek Vosyka
ELO 1543
FormLLLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Vosyka
MS
🇨🇿Michal Sokol
ELO 1534
FormWLWWL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Vosyka
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 69% · 1.45· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+9
H2H5-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.