11 Aug · 13:50 MESZLow · Coin Flip
TH
🇨🇿Tomas Hnizdil
ELO 1603
FormWLWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Srnka
JS
🇨🇿Jan Srnka
ELO 1618
FormWWLWW
49%
51%
Fair odds · Srnka
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+15
H2H13-11
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.