11 Aug · 13:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
LJ
🇨🇿Lukas Krupnik Jr
ELO 1506
FormWLWWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Sindler
JS
🇨🇿Jaroslav Sindler
ELO 1559
FormWLWWW
46%
54%
🔥 Underdog lean · Jr🌟Jr covers set handicap as underdog 68% (60)
Fair odds · Sindler
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 62% · 1.61· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+53
H2H22-21
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.