11 Aug · 13:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MF
🇨🇿Milan Flesar
ELO 1485
FormLLWLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Sokol
MS
🇨🇿Michal Sokol
ELO 1534
FormWLWWL
46%
54%
🌟Flesar stays under total as underdog 64% (22)
Fair odds · Sokol
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+49
H2H2-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.