11 Aug · 13:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AC
🇨🇿Ales Cizek
ELO 1548
FormWWWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Benes
RB
🇨🇿Radek Benes
ELO 1556
FormLWLWL
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Cizek🌟Cizek covers set handicap as underdog 69% (59)
Fair odds · Benes
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+8
H2H10-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.