11 Aug · 12:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
LJ
🇨🇿Lukas Krupnik Jr
ELO 1506
FormWLWWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Jr
PS
🇨🇿Patrik Sturma
ELO 1461
FormLLWWL
54%
46%
🌟Sturma covers set handicap as underdog 75% (57)
Fair odds · Jr
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+45
H2H55-37
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.