11 Aug · 08:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
WA
🇨🇿Wiekiera Arkadiusz
ELO 1569
FormLWLWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Patryk
KP
🇨🇿Kiejda Patryk
ELO 1571
FormWLLLW
50%
50%
Fair odds · Patryk
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 57% · 1.76· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+2
H2H20-18
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.