11 Aug · 18:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
RF
🇨🇿Radek Fitl
ELO 1555
FormLWLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Fitl
MH
🇨🇿Matej Holub
ELO 1547
FormLWWWL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Fitl
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+8
H2H6-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.