11 Aug · 16:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
LM
🇨🇿Ladislav Moravec
ELO 1426
FormLLLLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Filipek
MF
🇨🇿Martin Filipek
ELO 1458
FormWLLWW
47%
53%
Fair odds · Filipek
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+32
H2H14-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.