11 Aug · 17:50 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MF
🇨🇿Martin Filipek
ELO 1458
FormWLLWW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Melichar
JM
🇨🇿Jiri Melichar
ELO 1522
FormLWWWL
45%
55%
🔥 Underdog lean · Filipek🌟Melichar rarely covers set handicap as favourite 31% (16)
Fair odds · Melichar
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~74 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-1
17%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+64
H2H2-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+64)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (2-0)