11 Aug · 21:20 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PC
🇨🇿Pavel Cibik
ELO 1538
FormLWWWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Barsa
TB
🇨🇿Tomas Barsa
ELO 1540
FormWWLLW
50%
50%
Fair odds · Barsa
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 35% · 2.82· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+2
H2H4-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.