11 Aug · 21:15 MESZMedium · Model Lean
TO
🇨🇿Tomas Ogrocki
ELO 1420
FormLWWWW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Zeman
KZ
🇨🇿Karel Zeman
ELO 1484
FormWWLLL
45%
55%
🔥 Underdog lean · Ogrocki🌟Zeman rarely covers set handicap as favourite 34% (32)
Fair odds · Zeman
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 71% · 1.41· vig 6%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~76 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-1
17%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+64
H2H13-4
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+64)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (13-4)