12 Aug · 13:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
OP
🇨🇿Ondrej Polak
ELO 1585
FormLLWLL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Muska
JM
🇨🇿Jan Muska
ELO 1588
FormWWWLW
50%
50%
🌟Muska goes over total as favourite 78% (18)
Fair odds · Muska
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 42% · 2.36· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+3
H2H2-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.