12 Aug · 09:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
TF
🇨🇿Tomas Fojtik
ELO 1531
FormWWLLW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Skvrna
JS
🇨🇿Jan Skvrna
ELO 1643
FormWWLWW
41%
59%
🔥 Underdog lean · Fojtik🌟Fojtik covers set handicap as underdog 72% (54)
Fair odds · Skvrna
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~78 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+112
H2H7-3
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+112)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (7-3)