12 Aug · 09:40 MESZMedium · Model Lean
BM
🇨🇿Borek Moravec
ELO 1736
FormLWWWW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Moravec
JS
🇨🇿Jan Skvrna
ELO 1643
FormWWLWW
58%
42%
🌟Skvrna covers set handicap as underdog 80% (15)
Fair odds · Moravec
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~76 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+93
H2H14-13
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+93)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (14-13)