12 Aug · 10:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MC
🇨🇿Martin Cerny
ELO 1644
FormWLLWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Prochazka
MP
🇨🇿Michal Prochazka
ELO 1695
FormWWWWW
46%
54%
🌟Cerny stays under total as underdog 64% (85)
Fair odds · Prochazka
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~74 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+51
H2H3-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.