12 Aug · 11:25 MESZLow · Coin Flip
IJ
🇨🇿Ivan Jemelka
ELO 1455
FormWWWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Jemelka
PC
🇨🇿Peter Chvojka
ELO 1442
FormLWWWW
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Chvojka🌟Jemelka rarely covers set handicap as favourite 23% (13)
Fair odds · Jemelka
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 49% · 2.03· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+13
H2H1-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.