12 Aug · 18:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JL
🇨🇿Jan Lovl
ELO 1533
FormLLWWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Chvatal
PC
🇨🇿Pavel Chvatal
ELO 1571
FormLLLWL
47%
53%
🌟Chvatal rarely covers set handicap as favourite 29% (14)
Fair odds · Chvatal
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 41% · 2.43· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+38
H2H9-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.