12 Aug · 18:15 MESZLow · Coin Flip
VR
🇨🇿Vladislav Reska
ELO 1487
FormLWWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Reska
OC
🇨🇿Ondrej Coufal
ELO 1479
FormLLWL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Reska
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+8
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.